August
good result in peru back end of last month. good to start on right foot. this week, you are recieving this earlyish for the weekend. off to lithuania
bet 1)
4/8/12 4pm
bet: 1x2
match: dainava alytus .v. kruoja
league: lithuanian a lyga
selection: back kruoja to win @ 1.8 upwards
stake: 1.5pts
recommended bookies: bet 365
notes: home team have lost 4 star players, players haven't been paid for a long time, total unrest, vulnerable
good luck, check back regularly before the weekend incase anything else comes up (posted: 17:30 2/8/12)
bet 2)
8/8/12 1am
bet: 1x2
match: sport boys .v. alianza lima
league: peru premier
selection: back alianza lima to win @ 3.00 upwards
stake: 1.5pts
recommended bookies: betfred, stan james
get price quick (posted: 15:28 7/8/12)
bet 3)
12/8/12 1.30pm
bet: 1x2
match: chelsea .v. man city
league: community shield
selection: lay chelsea to win @ 3.05 - 3.25
stake: 2pts liability
recommended bookies: betfair
good luck (posted: 13:14 12/8/12)
bet 1)
4/8/12 4pm
bet: 1x2
match: dainava alytus .v. kruoja
league: lithuanian a lyga
selection: back kruoja to win @ 1.8 upwards
stake: 1.5pts
recommended bookies: bet 365
notes: home team have lost 4 star players, players haven't been paid for a long time, total unrest, vulnerable
good luck, check back regularly before the weekend incase anything else comes up (posted: 17:30 2/8/12)
bet 2)
8/8/12 1am
bet: 1x2
match: sport boys .v. alianza lima
league: peru premier
selection: back alianza lima to win @ 3.00 upwards
stake: 1.5pts
recommended bookies: betfred, stan james
get price quick (posted: 15:28 7/8/12)
bet 3)
12/8/12 1.30pm
bet: 1x2
match: chelsea .v. man city
league: community shield
selection: lay chelsea to win @ 3.05 - 3.25
stake: 2pts liability
recommended bookies: betfair
good luck (posted: 13:14 12/8/12)
bet 4)
15/8/12 7pm
bet: to score over 1.5 goals
match: sweden .v. brazil
league: international friendly
selection: back sweden @ 3.00 upwards
stake: 1.5pts
recommended bookies: bet365
15/8/12 7pm
bet: under/over 2.5 goals
match: sweden .v. brazil
league: international friendly
selection: back overs @ 1.9 upwards
stake: 1.5pts
recommended bookies: 188bet
this friendly game has special importance for sweden as it's the last game at this historical stadium, they should have motivation with this alone, they will also want to put on a show for fans after dissapointing euros. their attacking style of play and this being a friendly should see an open affair and i fancy sweden to help make this an exciting high scoring game. (posted: 01:10 15/8/12)
bet 5)
18/8/12 3pm
bet: asian handicap
match: west ham .v. aston villa
league: english premier league
selection: back aston villa +0.5 @ 1.84 upwards
stake: 2.5pts
recommended bookies: pinnacle
i made this one closer to 1.50, it's a bet (posted: 13:40 18/8/12)
bet 6)
19/8/12 4pm
bet: man city goals (spread bet)
match: man city .v. southampton
league: english premier league
selection: buy man city goals @ 2.85
stake: 1pt
recommended bookies: sporting index
notes: buying at 2.85 for 1pt stakes means that our maximum loss on the game is 2.85pts if man city fail to score, our possible upside is much larger with 4.5 even 6 city goals a reasonable assumption. i see city scoring a bare minimum of 2 goals here (that would incur a small loss but the amount of times they will net 3+ will outweigh the losses in the long term. enjoy spread betting
(posted: 14:27 19/8/12)
bet 7)
22/8/12
bet: asian handicap
match: stuttgart .v. dinamo moscow
league: europa league qualifying
selection: back stuttgart -1 @ 2.00 upwards
stake: 2.5pts
recommended bookies: bet365
22/8/12
bet: asian handicap
match: stuttgart .v. dinamo moscow
league: europa league qualifying
selection: back stuttgart -2 @ 4.20 upwards
stake: 1pt
recommended bookies: bet365
russian contact has given this a massive nod and when a guy this big gives you the nod, you listen. (posted: 15:50 20/8/12)
bet 8)
20/8/12
bet: total bookings points
match: everton .v. man utd
league: english premier league
selection: lay over 9 pts @ 2.5-2.6
stake: 2pts liability
recommended bookies: betfair
(posted: 19.56 20/8/12)
bet 9)
25/8/12
bet: 1x2
match: aston villa .v. everton
league: english premier league
selection: back everton @ 2.88 upwards
stake: 10pts
recommended bookies: stan james
notes: we will be backing this now at 2.88 with view to laying 8/9 of the points off on matchday, watching the everton man utd game at the moment and stan james a stand out 2.88, this will be shorter to lay on matchday. actually on betfair now 2.7/2.76
(posted: 20:40 20/8/12)
!new 'ante post' bet added! (posted: 11:51 21/8/12)
so some of you may enjoy this, some may not, some may be indifferent. here are my prices for this weekend's premier league games (the left) and the best industry prices (the right)
2.38 - Swansea - 2.15 2.84 - Draw - 3.45 4.35 - West Ham - 3.94
1.41 - Man Utd - 1.33 4.75 - Draw - 5.53 11.00 - Fulham - 12.00
1.74 - Tottenham - 1.56 4.15 - Draw - 4.39 5.26 - West Brom - 7.5
2.00 - Sunderland - 1.85 3.55 - Draw - 3.69 4.5 - Reading - 4.82
2.08 - Norwich - 2.34 3.80 - Draw - 3.5 4.00 - QPR - 3.3
2.28 - Southampton - 2.14 3.70 - Draw - 3.6 3.45 - Wigan - 3.76
3.35 - Aston Villa - 3.01 3.45 - Draw - 3.4 2.46 - Everton - 2.63
1.67 - Chelsea - 1.52 4.00 - Draw - 4.5 6.75 - Newcastle - 7.5
3.55 - Stoke - 3.80 3.55 - Draw - 3.75 2.26 - Arsenal - 2.18
3.32 - Liverpool - 3.22 3.45 - Draw - 3.5 2.45 - Man City - 2.4
the two highlighted games are the ones i feel are 'out' enough to warrant a bet. however, i don't just immediately back in the 1x2 market if i see one team is favoured more than i imagine they should be (or under priced). there are many markets on offer and sometimes venturing away from 1x2 can present good opportunites, the tottenham .v. west brom game for example, i like the look of west brom +1 a.h @ 1.99. i only see this bet losing 30% of the time, pushing 27% of the time and winning 43% of the time which makes it a profitable bet (if my calculations are right)
bet 10)
25/8/12 12:45
bet: 1x2
match: swansea .v. west ham
league: english premier league
selection: back the draw @ 3.45 upwards
stake: 2pts
recommended bookies: pinnacle
bet 11)
25/8/12 15:00
bet: asian handicap
match: tottenham .v. west brom
league: english premier league
selection: back west brom +1 a.h @ 1.99 upwards
stake: 2pts
recommended bookies: 188bet
(posted: 12:38 21/8/12)
bet 9 continued)
25/8/12
bet: 1x2
match: aston villa .v. everton
league: english premier league
selection: lay everton win @ 2.48
stake: 17.19pts liability
recommended bookies: betfair
notes: this is the follow up to bet 9, having backed everton @ 2.88 earlier in the week, we now lay off for a guaranteed 1.53pts profit across all outcomes. this is the holy grail, enjoy because it doesn't come around too often.
(posted: 00:16 25/8/12)
bet 12)
26/8/12
bet: 1x2
match: liverpool .v. man city
league: english premier league
selection: lay liverpool @ 3.00 or less
stake: 3 pts liability
recommended bookies: betfair
(posted 15:30 26/8/12)
bet 13)
26/8/12
bet: asian handicap
match: atalanta .v. lazio
league: serie a
selection: back atalanta '0' @ 1.91 or better
stake: 1.5pts
recommended bookies: pinnacle
(posted: 18:34 26/8/12)
!'september' bets added! (posted: 03:56 27/8/12)
bet 14)
29/8/12 3am
bet: dnb
match: real esteli v ld alajuelense
league: concacaf champions league
selection: back ld alajuelense @ 1.77 or better
stake: 2.5pts
recommended bookies: youwin
very shrewd judge has given this as an error from the odds compilers, move now! (posted: 17:12 27/8/12)
15/8/12 7pm
bet: to score over 1.5 goals
match: sweden .v. brazil
league: international friendly
selection: back sweden @ 3.00 upwards
stake: 1.5pts
recommended bookies: bet365
15/8/12 7pm
bet: under/over 2.5 goals
match: sweden .v. brazil
league: international friendly
selection: back overs @ 1.9 upwards
stake: 1.5pts
recommended bookies: 188bet
this friendly game has special importance for sweden as it's the last game at this historical stadium, they should have motivation with this alone, they will also want to put on a show for fans after dissapointing euros. their attacking style of play and this being a friendly should see an open affair and i fancy sweden to help make this an exciting high scoring game. (posted: 01:10 15/8/12)
bet 5)
18/8/12 3pm
bet: asian handicap
match: west ham .v. aston villa
league: english premier league
selection: back aston villa +0.5 @ 1.84 upwards
stake: 2.5pts
recommended bookies: pinnacle
i made this one closer to 1.50, it's a bet (posted: 13:40 18/8/12)
bet 6)
19/8/12 4pm
bet: man city goals (spread bet)
match: man city .v. southampton
league: english premier league
selection: buy man city goals @ 2.85
stake: 1pt
recommended bookies: sporting index
notes: buying at 2.85 for 1pt stakes means that our maximum loss on the game is 2.85pts if man city fail to score, our possible upside is much larger with 4.5 even 6 city goals a reasonable assumption. i see city scoring a bare minimum of 2 goals here (that would incur a small loss but the amount of times they will net 3+ will outweigh the losses in the long term. enjoy spread betting
(posted: 14:27 19/8/12)
bet 7)
22/8/12
bet: asian handicap
match: stuttgart .v. dinamo moscow
league: europa league qualifying
selection: back stuttgart -1 @ 2.00 upwards
stake: 2.5pts
recommended bookies: bet365
22/8/12
bet: asian handicap
match: stuttgart .v. dinamo moscow
league: europa league qualifying
selection: back stuttgart -2 @ 4.20 upwards
stake: 1pt
recommended bookies: bet365
russian contact has given this a massive nod and when a guy this big gives you the nod, you listen. (posted: 15:50 20/8/12)
bet 8)
20/8/12
bet: total bookings points
match: everton .v. man utd
league: english premier league
selection: lay over 9 pts @ 2.5-2.6
stake: 2pts liability
recommended bookies: betfair
(posted: 19.56 20/8/12)
bet 9)
25/8/12
bet: 1x2
match: aston villa .v. everton
league: english premier league
selection: back everton @ 2.88 upwards
stake: 10pts
recommended bookies: stan james
notes: we will be backing this now at 2.88 with view to laying 8/9 of the points off on matchday, watching the everton man utd game at the moment and stan james a stand out 2.88, this will be shorter to lay on matchday. actually on betfair now 2.7/2.76
(posted: 20:40 20/8/12)
!new 'ante post' bet added! (posted: 11:51 21/8/12)
so some of you may enjoy this, some may not, some may be indifferent. here are my prices for this weekend's premier league games (the left) and the best industry prices (the right)
2.38 - Swansea - 2.15 2.84 - Draw - 3.45 4.35 - West Ham - 3.94
1.41 - Man Utd - 1.33 4.75 - Draw - 5.53 11.00 - Fulham - 12.00
1.74 - Tottenham - 1.56 4.15 - Draw - 4.39 5.26 - West Brom - 7.5
2.00 - Sunderland - 1.85 3.55 - Draw - 3.69 4.5 - Reading - 4.82
2.08 - Norwich - 2.34 3.80 - Draw - 3.5 4.00 - QPR - 3.3
2.28 - Southampton - 2.14 3.70 - Draw - 3.6 3.45 - Wigan - 3.76
3.35 - Aston Villa - 3.01 3.45 - Draw - 3.4 2.46 - Everton - 2.63
1.67 - Chelsea - 1.52 4.00 - Draw - 4.5 6.75 - Newcastle - 7.5
3.55 - Stoke - 3.80 3.55 - Draw - 3.75 2.26 - Arsenal - 2.18
3.32 - Liverpool - 3.22 3.45 - Draw - 3.5 2.45 - Man City - 2.4
the two highlighted games are the ones i feel are 'out' enough to warrant a bet. however, i don't just immediately back in the 1x2 market if i see one team is favoured more than i imagine they should be (or under priced). there are many markets on offer and sometimes venturing away from 1x2 can present good opportunites, the tottenham .v. west brom game for example, i like the look of west brom +1 a.h @ 1.99. i only see this bet losing 30% of the time, pushing 27% of the time and winning 43% of the time which makes it a profitable bet (if my calculations are right)
bet 10)
25/8/12 12:45
bet: 1x2
match: swansea .v. west ham
league: english premier league
selection: back the draw @ 3.45 upwards
stake: 2pts
recommended bookies: pinnacle
bet 11)
25/8/12 15:00
bet: asian handicap
match: tottenham .v. west brom
league: english premier league
selection: back west brom +1 a.h @ 1.99 upwards
stake: 2pts
recommended bookies: 188bet
(posted: 12:38 21/8/12)
bet 9 continued)
25/8/12
bet: 1x2
match: aston villa .v. everton
league: english premier league
selection: lay everton win @ 2.48
stake: 17.19pts liability
recommended bookies: betfair
notes: this is the follow up to bet 9, having backed everton @ 2.88 earlier in the week, we now lay off for a guaranteed 1.53pts profit across all outcomes. this is the holy grail, enjoy because it doesn't come around too often.
(posted: 00:16 25/8/12)
bet 12)
26/8/12
bet: 1x2
match: liverpool .v. man city
league: english premier league
selection: lay liverpool @ 3.00 or less
stake: 3 pts liability
recommended bookies: betfair
(posted 15:30 26/8/12)
bet 13)
26/8/12
bet: asian handicap
match: atalanta .v. lazio
league: serie a
selection: back atalanta '0' @ 1.91 or better
stake: 1.5pts
recommended bookies: pinnacle
(posted: 18:34 26/8/12)
!'september' bets added! (posted: 03:56 27/8/12)
bet 14)
29/8/12 3am
bet: dnb
match: real esteli v ld alajuelense
league: concacaf champions league
selection: back ld alajuelense @ 1.77 or better
stake: 2.5pts
recommended bookies: youwin
very shrewd judge has given this as an error from the odds compilers, move now! (posted: 17:12 27/8/12)